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Thread: Cobblebot 3D Printer
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08-12-2014, 12:57 PM #31
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Joseph, I can see where you're coming from, having money invested in something really does change your point of view about it. And I can see how DJBrowny (I assume that's who you are responding to) comes across as an active propagandist. But from looking at his history, it seems like that's just his personality rather than evidence of foul play.
And his tone aside, I can see where he's coming from as well. When someone has had to grind through the (downright traumatizing) process of creating an actual viable and realistic business plan, it gives you a certain perspective that lets you see clearly who does and doesn't have the same experience. And seeing some of the people who clearly didn't go through the same effort get money thrown at them on a crowdfunding site just feels like injustice. It's very offensive.
While I agree that nobody gets paid $25 per hour for unskilled work, depending on the state their work may cost around that much after payroll taxes, medicare, labor licencing, various liability insurences and depending on the state any number of general labor union and regulatory fees. For every dollar that gets to a paycheck, the employer (if they want to stay fully legal) might pay between $1.50 and $2.25 depending on the state, city, and type of labor. Not saying all his math is right, but it's closer than you'd want to believe.
But maybe this Jeremiah Clifft guy can pull it together and deliver on his promises eventually, I don't know. All I can do is wish you and him the best of luck.
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08-12-2014, 02:14 PM #32
thanks Feign, I can see what you mean. however, for better or for worse, that kinda is the whole purpose of crowd funding isn't it? if the entrepreneur is to be held to all the same standards and requirements of an SBA loan, why would crowd funding even be necessary? I see KS and Indie as a means to raise funds for a project without the bureaucracy and stringent requirements. The trade off is better support for creativity and the activation of projects with minimal lag but at a higher risk with little to no recourse. There is no collateral and none of the backers will own a piece of the company or have any voting rights. I find it offensive that people throw money at someone wearing a meat dress or using profanity like everyday language. But I also understand that people have individual tolerances to risk and have the right to throw their money where ever they deem worthwhile. I don't mind honest criticism, I want to see the reality of risks at hand. However, DJBrowny who should be disinterested seems to be inflating fictional negatives so I wonder what his motives are. BTW, if I remember correctly, Clifft also specialized in consumer advocacy.
Clifft seems to think he can do it better. We ALL have yet to see. All I know is that if people can't afford to lose it, they shouldn't bet it.Last edited by josephchun; 08-12-2014 at 02:22 PM.
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08-12-2014, 03:04 PM #33
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- May 2014
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- 9
He specializes in small business bankruptcy.
I don't agree with DUG's math either but the cobblebot project is just extremely sketchy. Do you honestly believe that the parts are finalized and ready for IM? His updates showed many revisions of the bot and none looked remotely close to a functional prototype. And there's just no effort at all from his side, it seems like a side thing for him. No real time videos despite his clam of 1000 hours of printing, unstable floppy design from what little we get to see and he even refused to participate in the comments section, there are way too many red flags. I've been on kickstarter for a few years and this is by far the worst project I have ever seen. He doesn't have the time to take videos but no problem starting an indiegogo campaign?
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08-12-2014, 03:13 PM #34
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I don't think everybody realizes that when they "pre-order" a product that doesn't actually exist yet on one of these sites that they are actually betting in a sort of online casino. We keep seeing posts that ask whether one of these prospective machines is "better" than one that's actually on the market; as if there was any way to tell from the promotional material on their solicitations. It's entirely fair to point out to them which prospective companies have a less-than-optimal chance of actually delivering on their promises; and far from indicating a hidden agenda, it seems more like a public service. While these sites do make some dreams come true, they are also tempting targets for fraudsters that never intend to deliver anything to anyone. The more it seems too good to be true, the less likely it is to lead to a viable product. Unfortunately, the current "race to the bottom" in 3D printer pricing favors the less realistic business plans, which is what DJBrowny was tryi9ng to point out.
Although the crowdfunding community is pretty vigilant about notifying people when it looks like someone's running a scam, they do happen. More common, though, are people simply being unrealistic about what they can do and how much it will cost. Here are some examples of both: http://www.businessinsider.com/3-kic...one-bad-2013-6 http://www.supercompressor.com/gear/...n-crowdfunding http://pando.com/2014/04/04/revealed...-medical-scam/ http://makezine.com/2013/08/02/crowdfunding-confusion/
Andrew Werby
www.computersculpture.com
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08-12-2014, 04:29 PM #35
@carrot - I agree with the concerns you raise. They are mine as well be assured. However, the points you raise are real and based on facts. Unfortunately, as I pointed out previously, DJB makes an argument based on erroneous information and makes misleading implications. His point is well taken (ie. this is a risky investment) but the basis for his position is flawed masked seemingly in logic. I've simply pointed out the flaws and present a question for his zealousness.
I continued my pledge as a calculated risk that I personally deemed worth the risk. I'm open to pointing out the many concerns with this project even beyond the few you point out. But I don't think misinformation serves either side of the argument intended or not.
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08-12-2014, 04:34 PM #36
Andrew - your casino analogy is apt. Maybe I've been too harsh on DJB. It is good to see an opposing view for balance. Raising the question is not a crime yet I would like to see the feasibility formulation reiterated with more accurate factors.
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08-12-2014, 08:46 PM #37
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- Aug 2014
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I am the same boat as joseph.. my only concern when most of the other backers dished out my request for a better video .. best case scenario say if the price of $299 was just at the cost.. they can still earn by getting additional cost for the upgrades since they never include the shipping on the cost unlike most of the other crowdfunded printers
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08-13-2014, 10:43 AM #38
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- Jul 2014
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Hopefully everyone who spends money on Kickstarter has their own model of risk vs reward. I don't completely agree with DJB's model - I have my own - but it arrives at the same conclusion his does, and has a common base on an aggregate unpacked parts price of $200. My model does not attempt to determine if the printer is actually viable, simply if the costs structure makes any sense at all.
Obviously for me, it does not, and combined with what I believe are fundamental design flaws and overly optimistic assumptions, add up to a load of disappointment for those who chose to gamble on this project. I do not, and have never, believed that this was an outright scam - I do believe that Jeremiah intends on trying to bring a printer to market.
I as strongly believe that he has over stated the status of the project - 1000's of hours on numbers of prototypes; the depth of experience on "Team Cobblebot", and has not thought about product liability or support moving forward. I further think that he is apt to making forward looking statements with less than credible evidence; as an example he specifically states that he has received 100's of request from people who missed out on the Kickstarter, hence his desire to start the IndieGogo funding round. The fact that the IndieGogo project opened with one funder, and has as of now climbed to the loft height of 3 seems at odds with his statements.
I watched the Kickstarter Campaign with a bottle of beer and a load of incredulity. I was stunned at the passion that it generated from people who had no experience with 3D printing - and the speed at which they were willing to shout down those who at least had experience with 3D printers. I was also amazed how quickly they became experts in the course of a 30 day campaign!
Time will tell who is right, and who is wrong. The advantage in my mind is that if I'm wrong I'll still be able to get a Cobblebot, albeit at a premium price. If I'm right, I might just pick up a box of Chinese V-Rail and wheels for an even lower price.
Last edited by SystemsGuy; 08-13-2014 at 10:47 AM.
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08-13-2014, 02:07 PM #39
djbowny, you have some very good and strong points. You clearly feel something on a personal level here, especially given your defense in your sig.
When you give advise to your clients, is it normal to use the terms "magical world" and "unicorn land" when telling them about their business plans? For me, this hurts your credibly and a consultant. Don't get me wrong, I truly believe that you bring up valid and necessary concerns. I am someone you has done a similar business analysis, I didn't pursue the business I wanted because of it. That doesn't mean I didn't want to risk it anyway. I know "hope" and "believe" don't really belong in a business plan with unproven designs or an unknown material cost bracket too.
I disagree that skilled labor is necessary for all assemblers. This is Rigidbot factory assembly.
No job that they show in this footage is beyond my 12yo's skill level.
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08-13-2014, 07:33 PM #40
twice my response has been lost and not posted so I'll try it this 3rd/last time more concise than before:
less than $17 reduction from your guestimate will make this project solvent.
acrylic bed costs less from local supplier at retail. thickness will vary cost. since neither of us know the thickness designed, we're both guessing.
without and actual BOM we're both in the dark about actual cost.
12yo has assembled and calibrated in about 90 mins. tech has done it in 30 mins. your estimates of 6.5 per day for 6 months is way off.
"measly 20k" for labor is still $20/hour for 6 months.
likely will assemble less than 100 units, the rest will be packaged as kits. If so, $1000 should cover 6.25 days of labor to assemble 100 units by a skilled tech at $20/hour. $2000 to cover packaging remaining 908 units for shipping at 24 units per day for less than 2 months.
this reduces your 20k labor cost to 3k that's assuming they need to hire some at all.
you can't include a 20k labor cost to assemble then claim they are 20k in the hole BEFORE shipping. what else would the labor cost be for? shipping itself is paid for separately by the buyers.
All of this to say that your guess is as good as mine.
I certainly don't see the compelling reason for deeming this project impossible.
In any case, I do appreciate your opinions and I thank you for them.
Will this printer work? That is an entirely different question.
Printer will print perfect...
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