# Other > Off Topic >  Will Solar Power Be Dominant in the Next 15 years?

## Larry

So, this is a hotly debated topic in some circles.  What are the prospects of solar power becoming the dominant energy source of this planet in the next 15 years or so.  By 2029 solar power will be much cheaper than oil, and even natural gas.  Will this drive a new green energy explosion?  opinions?

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## CrazyLynx

No my friend set up about 200square meters solar power plant and in Poland there he have 3 month per year 100% eficciency and 3 months 10% eficciency. Solar isnt good idea at last in Poland

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## Feign

I'm not even going to be cryptic in my predictions.  Solar is never going to outpace biofuels for cost.  And that's assuming there is no sociopolitical shift in views on fission power, and no advances whatsoever in fusion power.

In 80 to 150 years when we actually finally run out of fossil-based ground oil (assuming we don't find more somewhere and that our power needs keep growing steadily rather than somehow skyrocketing), sustainable biofuels will pretty seamlessly take over in almost exactly the same style powerplants that we have today.

Even if the currently most powerful country on earth adopts a political stance of using nothing but solar, the countries that stick to more efficient methods of producing power will grow to dominate the power consumption and drag the global average away from solar power.

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## Compro01

> I'm not even going to be cryptic in my predictions.  Solar is never going to outpace biofuels for cost.  And that's assuming there is no sociopolitical shift in views on fission power, and no advances whatsoever in fusion power.
> 
> In 80 to 150 years when we actually finally run out of fossil-based ground oil (assuming we don't find more somewhere and that our power needs keep growing steadily rather than somehow skyrocketing), sustainable biofuels will pretty seamlessly take over in almost exactly the same style powerplants that we have today.
> 
> Even if the currently most powerful country on earth adopts a political stance of using nothing but solar, the countries that stick to more efficient methods of producing power will grow to dominate the power consumption and drag the global average away from solar power.


Biofuels basically are solar, just at one remove.

Though biofuels may get upstaged by synthetic fuels produced using solar electricity, like the "fuel from seawater" thing that was in the news and being massively misinterpreted by people a few weeks ago.

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## lindamarreno

You need to be in a tropical or sunny country to get the most of your solar panels. 
The oil deposits are thinning every year, and we are destroying all the non renewable resources. 
We can't bring down the sun right? so, Solar power will be the dominant power source for the years to come. 

Free energy  :Big Grin:

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## RobH2

If the question asked had been "will solar power dominate in 5-years" I would have said no. But, I believe that we'll discover cheaper and more efficient methods of producing solar panels and collectors in the next 15-years. Before 1932 when the neutron was discovered, no one dreamed of nuclear power. In 1954 the first nuclear power plant went online, just 22-years later, and without any computers to facilitate the development curve. 

Technology is accelerating at an unprecedented rate. I have no doubt that we'll be have the technology to produce more than half of our power from renewable sources in less than 15-years. The problem that exists is the infrastructure lag. While we may have the technology, it may take another 10-years before the technology has a chance to reach a large segment of the public.

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## Compro01

> In 1954 the first nuclear power plant went online, just 22-years later, and without any computers to facilitate the development curve.


Actually, they did have computers.  They were massive electromechanical systems, like the Mark I, but they did exist and were used for nuclear work, including calculations for the first nuclear bomb designs.

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## 3dfilemarket

I have solar panels on the roof of my house that heat the hot water so we don't need to use Gas. The 6 months of the summer my gas bill was £6.52.... due to nominal use on the cooker. So basically for 6 months of the year the solar panels provide the hot water rather than using the gas heater. As 60% of the gas bill is from heating water, rather than central heating the home, we save massive amounts of cash. Over £1000 per year........ Solar I am all for!

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## jimc

actually solar will not. it cant because even if we were able to make a 100% efficient solar panels there is not enough free space on the surface of the earth to keep the human race powered up 100%. now to put large solar collectors in orbit would be a different story but also very expensive. im trying to remember this correctly since this was something i was watching on discovery a couple years ago but to keep just the united states going at current energy consumption a solar collector in orbit would need to be the size of texas. dont get me wrong, solar is a great supplement but thats as far as it goes. only if they could ever make fusion work....one can dream i guess.

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## RedSox2013

> actually solar will not. it cant because even if we were able to make a 100% efficient solar panels there is not enough free space on the surface of the earth to keep the human race powered up 100%. now to put large solar collectors in orbit would be a different story but also very expensive. im trying to remember this correctly since this was something i was watching on discovery a couple years ago but to keep just the united states going at current energy consumption a solar collector in orbit would need to be the size of texas. dont get me wrong, solar is a great supplement but thats as far as it goes. only if they could ever make fusion work....one can dream i guess.


Huh?  There is more then enough space in a small fractions of desserts of this planet alone, not to add in roof tops, marking lots, and roads.

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## Compro01

> actually solar will not. it cant because even if we were able to make a 100% efficient solar panels there is not enough free space on the surface of the earth to keep the human race powered up 100%


I think you may be underestimating how much space we have available.  You don't need empty land.  Toss panels on every roof in the nation, cover the highways with them.

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## RobH2

I think you my also ignoring the potential for the creation of much more efficient collectors. Just like the first computers like ENIAC were the size of buildings, we now have computers 1000's of times more powerful, in something smaller that a deck of cards. I think the will be a breakthrough in size the will enable solar become significant. It makes no sense to suggest that we won't be able to figure out how to use the most abundant and renewal energy source in the Solar System, the Sun. It may not happen in precisely 15-years but I think it will in my lifetime, and I'm over 50. We'll figure it out.

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## jimc

as i said i am just going from what was explained on a discovery channel special on solar energy. apparently even with 100% efficient panels the human race consumes more power than solar energy hits the earth on land. solar i believe could be a major player but we couldnt be a 100% solar powered planet.

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## Compro01

> the human race consumes more power than solar energy hits the earth on land.


No, we're not even close.

The Earth gets about 2.7 Yottajoules (1024) of energy from the sun annually.  30% of that hits land, so 0.81 Yottajoules on land mass.

Humanity's total energy usage (electricity, oil, everything) is about 517 Exajoules (1018)

The former number is about 1600 times greater than the latter.

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## Trapist

If humanity wants to live comfortably 300 years from now, solar will be a part, but not all, of that equation.  Solar can definitely use a lot more R&D right now, but when it does get to a point that makes it more economic, it will take off.  We literally have a giant ball of energy that can be capitalized on, and it is a shame that people put on their political blinders when considering that fact.

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## Mjolinor

> If humanity wants to live comfortably 300 years from now, solar will be a part, but not all, of that equation.  Solar can definitely use a lot more R&D right now, but when it does get to a point that makes it more economic, it will take off.  We literally have a giant ball of energy that can be capitalized on, and it is a shame that people put on their political blinders when considering that fact.


It won't matter by then anyway because the release of the co2 from fossil fuels will have made the planet how it used to be before the co2 was locked up and humans (as we are now) will not survive.

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