Does Moore's Law Apply to 3D Printing?

[Jeremia_Munchkins]

This is something have been discussing with some of my students.

3D Systems CEO Avi Reichental, believes that Moore's law applies to 3D Printing. For those of you that don't know what Moore's law is, it is an observation made by the founder of Intel, Gordon Moore. He observed that every 2 years, the number of transistors on a circuit doubles. This law has held up perfectly over the years.

As for 3D Printing, Reichental believes that these printers' performance will double up and costs will double down (presumably every 2 years).

Do you guys think this is true?

If this is the case, than we shoud expect some great things within the next 10 years. 2 to the 5th power (10 years) is 32. That means that printers will be 32 times more powerful, and 32 times more cost efficient in 10 years from now.

Then again this guy is the CEO of one of the largest 3D Printing manufacturers in the world. Of course he wants people to believe this. Do you?

[Vanguard]

Laws of physics trump Moore's law. Plastic can only melt so fast, heat can only travel so fast, materials can only handle so much, there is a minimum length, and diameter melt chamber, there is an upper limit to print speed.

[Elliot de Cubeek]

Hi Vanguard i totally agree with your answer.
I work in the 1st 3D store in France called Cubeek 3D, so i'm use to print everyday and i'm aware of the new technologies, new machines and process.
Indeed i'll take the example of the Leapfrog Creatr "High Speed" model of the netherland company: this machine announces 5 times speed improvment compared to the Leapfrog Creatr (that has the same speed as the Rep 2), I'm not really optimistic with that.
Yes 3d printing still meets the physical bareer (i mean the FDM) that unallows 3D printing to be really fast, but in another hand i trust big companies as 3D systems or Makerbot will invent new processes that will change the speed of printing models.

[nka]

Better performance dosent always mean "faster". There's other way to make things faster, like multiple layer at the same time.

I trust this is true ! We will see more and more price drop and more resolution, speed and reability over time!

[old man emu]

Vanguard's point is correct as far as it goes. I think Reichental is correct in saying that the machinery will become more cost efficient in the future as the industrial use of 3D printing moves away from a reliance on prototyping and towards printing one-off items to suit individuals. My interest is in printing prosthetics for amputees, and other bio-structures.

I see domestic 3D printers as items of transient interest to the majority of the population, but there will always be that hard core of enthusiastic tinkerers.

Old Man Emu

[Jeremia_Munchkins]

I fully expect what Reichental says to come true. However, I don't think Moore's law applies here. It's like comparing apples and oranges.

3D Printing will become a lot more efficient, faster, better quality, etc, but to put numbers on the rate at which it will happen, and the rate at which prices will fall seems silly to me.

[tommcana]

Yes you are right 3D Printing is day to day is grew with new technology it's make s faster and better quality hope it's rate and price will minor.

[Artiemosk]

I wouldn't discount Avi Reichental's prediction so fast. Yes physics gets in the way now, as plastic needs time to melt, extrude and harden in filament printers. That's if you look at current technology which maxes out at 4 extruder heads now. What if HP figures out a way to atomize the plastic and spray it through a 14,000 nozzle extruders like in their wide format printers? Or what if a nozzle array was wide enough that it didn't have to move on one axis like the HP inkjet with no moving print head? SLA took a huge jump with the Form 1 and speeds could certainly increase with laser arrays to melt the substrate. Double the speed at half the price in 2 years... totally possible.

[Compro01]

What if HP figures out a way to atomize the plastic and spray it through a 14,000 nozzle extruders like in their wide format printers?

Stratasys already does this sort of thing with their Objet printers and they hold a patent on it which is good for another 5 years.

[djprinter]

Stratasys already does this sort of thing with their Objet printers and they hold a patent on it which is good for another 5 years.

Soon it will be economically smart for Stratasys to start targeting the consumer market.