Cobblebot 3D Printer

[Feign]

Joseph, I can see where you're coming from, having money invested in something really does change your point of view about it. And I can see how DJBrowny (I assume that's who you are responding to) comes across as an active propagandist. But from looking at his history, it seems like that's just his personality rather than evidence of foul play.

And his tone aside, I can see where he's coming from as well. When someone has had to grind through the (downright traumatizing) process of creating an actual viable and realistic business plan, it gives you a certain perspective that lets you see clearly who does and doesn't have the same experience. And seeing some of the people who clearly didn't go through the same effort get money thrown at them on a crowdfunding site just feels like injustice. It's very offensive.

While I agree that nobody gets paid $25 per hour for unskilled work, depending on the state their work may cost around that much after payroll taxes, medicare, labor licencing, various liability insurences and depending on the state any number of general labor union and regulatory fees. For every dollar that gets to a paycheck, the employer (if they want to stay fully legal) might pay between $1.50 and $2.25 depending on the state, city, and type of labor. Not saying all his math is right, but it's closer than you'd want to believe.

But maybe this Jeremiah Clifft guy can pull it together and deliver on his promises eventually, I don't know. All I can do is wish you and him the best of luck.

[josephchun]

Joseph, I can see where you're coming from, having money invested in something really does change your point of view about it. And I can see how DJBrowny (I assume that's who you are responding to) comes across as an active propagandist. But from looking at his history, it seems like that's just his personality rather than evidence of foul play.

And his tone aside, I can see where he's coming from as well. When someone has had to grind through the (downright traumatizing) process of creating an actual viable and realistic business plan, it gives you a certain perspective that lets you see clearly who does and doesn't have the same experience. And seeing some of the people who clearly didn't go through the same effort get money thrown at them on a crowdfunding site just feels like injustice. It's very offensive.

While I agree that nobody gets paid $25 per hour for unskilled work, depending on the state their work may cost around that much after payroll taxes, medicare, labor licencing, various liability insurences and depending on the state any number of general labor union and regulatory fees. For every dollar that gets to a paycheck, the employer (if they want to stay fully legal) might pay between $1.50 and $2.25 depending on the state, city, and type of labor. Not saying all his math is right, but it's closer than you'd want to believe.

But maybe this Jeremiah Clifft guy can pull it together and deliver on his promises eventually, I don't know. All I can do is wish you and him the best of luck.

thanks Feign, I can see what you mean. however, for better or for worse, that kinda is the whole purpose of crowd funding isn't it? if the entrepreneur is to be held to all the same standards and requirements of an SBA loan, why would crowd funding even be necessary? I see KS and Indie as a means to raise funds for a project without the bureaucracy and stringent requirements. The trade off is better support for creativity and the activation of projects with minimal lag but at a higher risk with little to no recourse. There is no collateral and none of the backers will own a piece of the company or have any voting rights. I find it offensive that people throw money at someone wearing a meat dress or using profanity like everyday language. But I also understand that people have individual tolerances to risk and have the right to throw their money where ever they deem worthwhile. I don't mind honest criticism, I want to see the reality of risks at hand. However, DJBrowny who should be disinterested seems to be inflating fictional negatives so I wonder what his motives are. BTW, if I remember correctly, Clifft also specialized in consumer advocacy.

Clifft seems to think he can do it better. We ALL have yet to see. All I know is that if people can't afford to lose it, they shouldn't bet it.

[14thcarrot]

He specializes in small business bankruptcy.
I don't agree with DUG's math either but the cobblebot project is just extremely sketchy. Do you honestly believe that the parts are finalized and ready for IM? His updates showed many revisions of the bot and none looked remotely close to a functional prototype. And there's just no effort at all from his side, it seems like a side thing for him. No real time videos despite his clam of 1000 hours of printing, unstable floppy design from what little we get to see and he even refused to participate in the comments section, there are way too many red flags. I've been on kickstarter for a few years and this is by far the worst project I have ever seen. He doesn't have the time to take videos but no problem starting an indiegogo campaign?

[awerby]

I don't think everybody realizes that when they "pre-order" a product that doesn't actually exist yet on one of these sites that they are actually betting in a sort of online casino. We keep seeing posts that ask whether one of these prospective machines is "better" than one that's actually on the market; as if there was any way to tell from the promotional material on their solicitations. It's entirely fair to point out to them which prospective companies have a less-than-optimal chance of actually delivering on their promises; and far from indicating a hidden agenda, it seems more like a public service. While these sites do make some dreams come true, they are also tempting targets for fraudsters that never intend to deliver anything to anyone. The more it seems too good to be true, the less likely it is to lead to a viable product. Unfortunately, the current "race to the bottom" in 3D printer pricing favors the less realistic business plans, which is what DJBrowny was tryi9ng to point out.

Although the crowdfunding community is pretty vigilant about notifying people when it looks like someone's running a scam, they do happen. More common, though, are people simply being unrealistic about what they can do and how much it will cost. Here are some examples of both: http://www.businessinsider.com/3-kic...one-bad-2013-6 http://www.supercompressor.com/gear/...n-crowdfunding http://pando.com/2014/04/04/revealed...-medical-scam/ http://makezine.com/2013/08/02/crowdfunding-confusion/

Andrew Werby
www.computersculpture.com

[josephchun]

@carrot - I agree with the concerns you raise. They are mine as well be assured. However, the points you raise are real and based on facts. Unfortunately, as I pointed out previously, DJB makes an argument based on erroneous information and makes misleading implications. His point is well taken (ie. this is a risky investment) but the basis for his position is flawed masked seemingly in logic. I've simply pointed out the flaws and present a question for his zealousness.

I continued my pledge as a calculated risk that I personally deemed worth the risk. I'm open to pointing out the many concerns with this project even beyond the few you point out. But I don't think misinformation serves either side of the argument intended or not.

[josephchun]

Andrew - your casino analogy is apt. Maybe I've been too harsh on DJB. It is good to see an opposing view for balance. Raising the question is not a crime yet I would like to see the feasibility formulation reiterated with more accurate factors.

[weeiiee]

I am the same boat as joseph.. my only concern when most of the other backers dished out my request for a better video .. best case scenario say if the price of $299 was just at the cost.. they can still earn by getting additional cost for the upgrades since they never include the shipping on the cost unlike most of the other crowdfunded printers

[SystemsGuy]

Hopefully everyone who spends money on Kickstarter has their own model of risk vs reward. I don't completely agree with DJB's model - I have my own - but it arrives at the same conclusion his does, and has a common base on an aggregate unpacked parts price of $200. My model does not attempt to determine if the printer is actually viable, simply if the costs structure makes any sense at all.

Obviously for me, it does not, and combined with what I believe are fundamental design flaws and overly optimistic assumptions, add up to a load of disappointment for those who chose to gamble on this project. I do not, and have never, believed that this was an outright scam - I do believe that Jeremiah intends on trying to bring a printer to market.

I as strongly believe that he has over stated the status of the project - 1000's of hours on numbers of prototypes; the depth of experience on "Team Cobblebot", and has not thought about product liability or support moving forward. I further think that he is apt to making forward looking statements with less than credible evidence; as an example he specifically states that he has received 100's of request from people who missed out on the Kickstarter, hence his desire to start the IndieGogo funding round. The fact that the IndieGogo project opened with one funder, and has as of now climbed to the loft height of 3 seems at odds with his statements.

I watched the Kickstarter Campaign with a bottle of beer and a load of incredulity. I was stunned at the passion that it generated from people who had no experience with 3D printing - and the speed at which they were willing to shout down those who at least had experience with 3D printers. I was also amazed how quickly they became experts in the course of a 30 day campaign!

Time will tell who is right, and who is wrong. The advantage in my mind is that if I'm wrong I'll still be able to get a Cobblebot, albeit at a premium price. If I'm right, I might just pick up a box of Chinese V-Rail and wheels for an even lower price.

Andrew - your casino analogy is apt. Maybe I've been too harsh on DJB. It is good to see an opposing view for balance. Raising the question is not a crime yet I would like to see the feasibility formulation reiterated with more accurate factors.

[MasterAnubis]

djbowny, you have some very good and strong points. You clearly feel something on a personal level here, especially given your defense in your sig.

When you give advise to your clients, is it normal to use the terms "magical world" and "unicorn land" when telling them about their business plans? For me, this hurts your credibly and a consultant. Don't get me wrong, I truly believe that you bring up valid and necessary concerns. I am someone you has done a similar business analysis, I didn't pursue the business I wanted because of it. That doesn't mean I didn't want to risk it anyway. I know "hope" and "believe" don't really belong in a business plan with unproven designs or an unknown material cost bracket too.

I disagree that skilled labor is necessary for all assemblers. This is Rigidbot factory assembly.
No job that they show in this footage is beyond my 12yo's skill level.

[josephchun]

twice my response has been lost and not posted so I'll try it this 3rd/last time more concise than before:

less than $17 reduction from your guestimate will make this project solvent.
acrylic bed costs less from local supplier at retail. thickness will vary cost. since neither of us know the thickness designed, we're both guessing.
without and actual BOM we're both in the dark about actual cost.
12yo has assembled and calibrated in about 90 mins. tech has done it in 30 mins. your estimates of 6.5 per day for 6 months is way off.
"measly 20k" for labor is still $20/hour for 6 months.
likely will assemble less than 100 units, the rest will be packaged as kits. If so, $1000 should cover 6.25 days of labor to assemble 100 units by a skilled tech at $20/hour. $2000 to cover packaging remaining 908 units for shipping at 24 units per day for less than 2 months.
this reduces your 20k labor cost to 3k that's assuming they need to hire some at all.
you can't include a 20k labor cost to assemble then claim they are 20k in the hole BEFORE shipping. what else would the labor cost be for? shipping itself is paid for separately by the buyers.


All of this to say that your guess is as good as mine.
I certainly don't see the compelling reason for deeming this project impossible.

In any case, I do appreciate your opinions and I thank you for them.

Will this printer work? That is an entirely different question.

Since I now have time to reply properly

1) I will admit that I missed that 'most' of the units will not be sold assembled, I saw multiple tiers, including one of the 299 ones claiming built and calibrated. I did not see that in fact the other, more popular $299 tiers were in kit form.

2) I dont know about you, but I found that building a 3D printer is actually not the easiest thing in the world. Youre right you dont need engineers, but you do need people of some technical ability. People who know how to operate a drill pres, know what a socket wrench is and how big an inch is to a centimetre. We are dealing with rather complicated little gadgets and getting one thing messed up can lead to a massive loss in money. One faulty build will incur shipping back and repair costs which could easily total the amount of a new printer. If I was running a small manufacturing business where our products must be able to operate to within 0.15mm, I want smart, capable people and the thing about them, is they are usually employed somewhere else and wont work for some dodgy kickstarter company.

My use of $25/hour for assembly was based on my own experiences and knowing just how hard it is to find the right people who understand 3D printers. Its a very rare skill set to have. Personally, I would not have looked at anyone who wasnt at least some way tertiary qualified to build the printers my colleagues and I have designed in the past. If I am trusting people with my business reputation to not stuff up, I will trust people who are worth 25/hour.

Of course in the Cobblebot scenario, of course jeremiah could pay some local kids $10/hour to build his kits, or maybe get his wife or something to build a few for free every day to help start up. Tell me, would you want a printer built and calibrated by your average young-adult with no 3d printing experience? It is REALLY HARD to find people with this skill set, and Id know Ive owned a 3DP business for over a year now, found 2 people ever I would trust to operate my machines.

If my reasoning got a bit jumbled there, it was basically finding people with 3DP building skills ready to work locally is extremely difficult. Your best shot is to find some retired machinist or graduate engineer or something, someone who can give you a full time effort and you can simply put a manual in front of them and they will know exactly how to put it together. And either way, these people arent cheap.

3) Well yes of course, but not all the way. When a company that raises a huge amount of money pays a group of people to work, the combined taxable income, after deductions, is still going to be around the tens of thousands.

4) My 'beef' with the project is that I cant stand reading all the comments of backers who wasted money. Whether its Makibox, P3d, phoenix or any other cheap garbage 3DP company, its heartbreaking reading how some parents wanted a 3DP gift for their teenage kid or something last christmas, but now it wont even arrive until 2015 (and it actually wont ever arrive those companies will all be bankrupt by then). This project is going to be no different. You get all these happy, enthusiastic people who want to join this industry but some freakin lawyer comes along and says hes invented a miracle machine and pays his suppliers in monopoly money, passing the savings on to you (thats the same level of truth the project has currently), and all those people will get burned. Meanwhile you get these really cool companies who grinded out quality machines for years on end and put the big companies to shame with their innovations, yet they struggle to sell machines coz all the 'new 3d printer' money is being funnelled into kickstarter printers which never deliver

Some people (not you but I get this around the place) think im some competitor, some bitter inventor upset his printer didnt sell. Heres something for you all. I am a consultant. People pay me to tell them what to do. They pitch their ideas, I do the research and come back with estimates and probe the market etc to determine viability and then get back to them with my findings. They can ignore me or listen to the reality of the situation. I have had 3 different 'companies' try to invent a new printer and go through me for my advice. 2 of them listened to me and chose to keep their day job, one didnt and lost about $60k of his savings pursuing a vaporware project. The ones that listened realised that my estimates and numbers are conservative and they did their own research, only a little, to realise they were coming to the same conclusions.

I am not suggesting I am always right or my maths is perfect, but it MAKES SENSE in this world. I dont 'fudge the numbers'. I say 'here is a realistic range. If you get lucky and everything goes smoothly, expect this. If you are a normal business and operate with the usual difficulties, expect that'. All of my maths is general and is basically a range. Certain factors might vary by +/- 10% but overall they should balance out.

Had the cobblebot team come to me before pitching, I dont care if they make $1 or $1million, its the same work for me, I would have very strongly said 'go home, finalise your design and come back when you have an idea on who you are going to hire to build and calibrate a brand new type of printer. Once you have done that, then we can start figuring out what to sell this thing for and dont suggest a price to me until this is finished'

Based on my calculations... OK I'm going to go in-depth for you, and state all of my assumptions and be conservative. This is what I would do if someone came to me trying to invent a new type of printer.

Bill of materials. Based on the fact that printer vitamins and their cheapest can be bought for somewhere around $180, this is the base line. This is super-conservative. Most budget prusas come in at around $300 for materials however a lot of that cost is the frame. Given the fact that Cobblebot has secured over 1,200 orders we can cut these costs down. Now that $180 of course, didnt include the frame. thats just the motors/rods/psu/electronics/bearings etc. Cobblebots IM pieces look actually quite significant in size, some could even be a few $ per one. These total, super conservative, might come to around $20. Now cobblebot is also using gigantic rods, and a lot of them. the rods cost is going to increase by a factor of about 8 times but these can be gotten cheaply with huge orders. Lets take a safe estimate and say $40 for all of those massive rods. Since we are using an acrylic non moving build plate, this can be dirt cheap with mass quantities to lets say $10 per one, at that size. Cobblebot also uses an LCD, so add around $10 there for mass amounts bought.

So we are up to $260.

Now, lets assume jeremiah and his friend are working for no money. They need to pump out 1200 printers in 6 months, 6.57 per day. Assuming they are all in kit form, they will hire one more person to help, paid at a measly 20k

Injection molding. Generally, around $50k all up for 3d printer brackets is somewhat standard. But since Cobblebot lives in the land of unicorns, lets say he found someone to do them for $30k. its possible, but highly unlikely. people dont give huge discounts to tiny quantities like 1000.

In this super-conservative magical world, the cobblebot is a perfect machine which requires no after-market support and never breaks. therefore, they have no need to keep replacement parts in stock or send them out. These printers will be built in his garage and there is no need for employee insurances since they are all self insured. Electricity is also free.

By the equation in my article, now adding in credit card surcharges which I forgot to earlier

Income > Expenses

$373,916 * (kickstarters commission 0.96) * (credit card fees 0.97) > 1208*$260 + 30k + 20k
$344,600 (Income) > $364k (Expenses)
$344,000 (Income) > $364k (Expenses)

Oh wow... even in this unicorn land, the project is $20,000 in debt before they fulfil their backers orders. What does that mean? that means 5.5% of backers wont receive their printers at all and all of those who do, the company is bankrupt after 6 months, so you have no support for your product.

Goodnight Cobblebot.

If you call that a successful model, you are insane.

How can one give objective criticism to such a product which is impossible even in the land of perfect everything?

Want a more realistic analysis? Warranty and replacement parts costs will be roughly 10% being conservative here still. The team of workers will take 120k/year salary split beteween them which honestly, is fair. molding is 50k and we will throw in an additional 10k to cover the fact the printer isnt even finalised yet, taking a months worth of work and prototypes.

344,000 > 1208*(260*1.1) + 60k + 50k + 10k
344k > 345k + 120k
344k > 465k

the project is 121k debt after the 7 months.

What does this mean? it means 33.5% of backers will never see a printer and again those that do have no support as the company is bankrupt.

---

You call it negative propaganda, I call it valid assumptions and legitimate maths.
And you want to know the kicker to all this... This is assuming the printer actually you know, WORKS. Considering the design is wobbly as all hell and no oe has seen videos of it printing something large, its kind of a big deal to add to this mix.