Shapeways Business Model in 5-10 Years?

I love the idea of Shapeways, and find the company so convenient. In the short term they are going to grow quite a bit, but in the 5-10 year time frame, where will their growth be as more and more consumers begin buying their own quality 3D printers for their homes and offices? On the other hand I think Thingiverse may be a better longer term bet as models will always be needed, and eventually an entire 3D model marketplace could be worth billions.

I do know that Shapeways has many large investors, most who are very smart, and able to understand trends. Will there be a need for a printing service 5-1o years down the line? Will Shapeways be forced to change their business model substantially?

Opinions?

The prices look a little steep to me IMHO.

Difficult question.

In 5-10 years, 3D printing will be in direct competition with virtual reality. But virtual reality is already offering near full immersion experience and it isn't even in the public market yet. VR does the obvious visual and audio portion, but it also allows finger and hand movement with the Myo, full body movement with the Kinect, and even smell (immature), taste (immature), and haptic feedback (immature). Google is working on Project Loon which will distribute the internet around the world via low flying satellites/airships. Google is also working on Project Tango which will let people project their physical surrounding into VR. VR technologies will advance dramatically over the next five years because the market will be ginormous and there aren't too many technological hurdles in the way.

3D printing, on the other hand, will largely benefit innovative industry projects such as the GE/Local Motors collaboration in FirstBuild. Personal printing, on the other hand, may not develop too much over the next five years, though hobbyist contributions will be significant. By the time personal printing goes mainstream I think the FirstBuild collaboration models will have spawned into open source developer communities to address almost all retail industries.

Virtual Reality with hand coordination provided by devices like Myo will make 3D model development much easier. It will become common for people to collaborate in a virtual environment to design useful objects then distribute them for free. In addition, pirating will be common practice. Consequently, Shapeways is a short term trinket/gift site. Cool stuff, but no big growth. Thingiverse is ok too, but they will be overrun by independent communities with established reputations in specific product lines. Therefore, a multibillion dollar 3D model market, in my opinion, will never develop. It will exist, but the models will be free.

3D printing is a money printing machine, but so is virtual reality. The difference is that virtual reality is going to provide more bang for the buck in the short term so that is where the retail consumers will gravitate.

I think Shapeways might not have to change their business model that much in the next 5-10 years, even with changes in 3D printer technology. Why? Because as the tech changes, they will likely keep buying the more expensive models that the average home user cannot afford, and therefore have better quality to offer, plus the fact that you don't have to learn anything about how to operate a 3D printer to order something and have it sent to you.

Shapeways biggest issue right now is the relatively slow speed of 3D printing not letting them keep up with the demand for their service. As the tech speeds up, they might be able to offer more affordable prices while also fulfilling more demand, and being able to ship out 3d items sooner.